LIFT ‘08 opens with a keynote from Bruce Sterling, which ends up a being a cross between a disappointment and an annoyance.  He starts with the “prediction” that nothing much will happen in 2008, that the year will basically be “crappy” and then proceeds to read (from his notes) a beautifully-written and entertaining but completely off-the-wall essay reflecting on the possible ‘futures’ of French Prime Minister Sarkozy and his new wife.

In general, I’m as much a Sterling fan as the next person (well, truth be told, maybe less so.  I don’t normally read science fiction and I never could get behind the concept “blogjects”).  But I’ve heard him give some absolutely fabulous speeches, and there’s rarely a column that I miss. 

Perhaps the plethora of speaking invitations has given Sterling the idea he has a free pass to get up on stage and say whatever he wants, whether it’s appropriate to the audience or not.   One had the impression that the extent of his preparation for LIFT was swigging down a latte and saying “let’s see, today’s Thursday… I’m in Europe… it’s a conference about the future…. I’ll say 2008 will be a crappy year and gossip about the French prime minister.”  But perhaps I’m not being fair: maybe that speech was meant for a different conference and he just forgot what day it was.

If I had come to LIFT to hear Sterling speak, I would have been hugely disappointed.  But thankfully, LIFT is about more than big-name speakers.  In contrast to other conferences that are filled with speaking “whales” LIFT guarantees a fair share of surprises - smaller names (and egos), but big ideas.  And most importantly, it delivers on that promise.  The fabulous thing about LIFT is that one can easily shake off a bad keynote, settle in and wait for real show to begin.

Laurent Haug (co-founder of the LIFT conferences) wrote a fabulous post recently called “Eight Things I Think I Think”  - an intriguing list of things he knows, but isn’t sure why. A few years ago Edge co-founder John Brockman published a great book on a similar topic, a compilation of answers to the question: “What do you believe is true even though you can’t prove it?”

It’s a perfect exercise for a futurist who is asked on a regular basis “what do you think will happen in the future?” (the problem with that question being that I always feel compelled to provide an answer that is what I call provokacredible - that is, thought-provoking enough to earn my stripes as a futurist, but credible enough to keep me gainfully employed).

But sometimes, like tonight, as I approach the almost-end of the week I realize that my brain cells are numb from too much email and I’m listing too far towards the present and not enough into the future. And so I found Laurent’s post - and a fabulous Oregon Coast Pinot Noir - a welcome antidote, reminding me that sometimes, as Malcolm Gladwell would say, it’s better to blink, not think.  And so in the spirit of great blog posts that make you think (kudos, Laurent) here’s my own list of things I think I think:

Privacy is an antiquated notion. Our current arguments about both online and offline privacy will be seen by future generations at best as quaint and naive, at worst, as narrow-minded and ignorant.

Cybership will become more important than citizenship.

In the next five years bottled water-drinkers will be as socially marginalized as cigarette smokers (ok, this is one I actually hope for).

Both Malcolm Gladwell and Duncan Watts are wrong: ideas propagate because of platforms, not people. The social media sphere has become the primary means for disseminating information and ideas throughout society.

In the next decade we will develop a pharmacological cure for sleep.  And maybe - just maybe - that’s a good thing.

Breakthroughs in genomics and neuroscience will spark a widespread debate about “what it means to be human” that will become the primary focus of public discourse over the next two decades, fracturing religions and spurring geo-political conflicts.

DNA and social capital will become primary currencies in the future, complete with their own markets, traders and fluctuating value indexes.

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p.s. -   Laurent: deepest apologies for stealing your idea, but many thanks for the inspiration and mental nudge.  I owe you a beer at LIFT.  Or an Oregon Pinot.