What do futurists read?

At the 2007 “annual gathering” of the Association of Professional Futurists, we asked that question by requesting that each attendee bring one book that is a “must read” for every futurist. The result: a somewhat raucous book swap of eclecticbrain food from business to biology to black swans. Many thanks to APF members Wendy Schultz, Craig Bettles and Cindy Frewen for compiling and annotating the following list.

(Note: be sure to read to the end of this list for the “bonus books”)

Creativity: Flow and the Psychology of Discovery and Invention by Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi - This fascinating book looks at what makes creative people who they are.

Cloud Atlas by David Mitchell - A set of nested scenarios, set variously in the South Pacific, Amsterdam, England, California, Korea, and Hawaii, that step forward from the 1800’s to a distant collapse future., by David Mitchell - A set of nested scenarios, set variously in the South Pacific, Amsterdam, England, California, Korea, and Hawaii, that step forward from the 1800’s to a distant collapse future.?

Counterculture Through the Ages by Ken Goffman (a.k.a. R.U. Sirius)- A work of historical scholarship cleverly disguised in a colorful and irreverent narrative, Goffman offers insights into the personalities and perspectives that have produced some of the most influential countercultures in society.

Good to Great, by Jim Collins - Case studies of sustained greatness, notable for the solidity of its evidence and factual support.

The Tree of Knowledge by Maturana and Varela - Sweeping analysis and perspective on the systems perceivable everywhere, from the smallest micro-organism up to the edges of the universe.

The Hydrogen Economy by Jeremy Rifkin - Sensible overview of where it could go, and what it could mean.

The Hype about Hydrogen by Joseph Romm- A rebuttal of the wild hopes and unrealistic expectations attached to the hydrogen economy.

Identity and Violence: The Illusion of Destiny by Amartya Sen - Examines multiple identities that people have and how those identities move us toward war and strife.

The Futurist by James P. Othmer- A novel about truth, “truthiness” and a consultant who has lost the plot.

The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb- A critique of economic forecasting that focuses on “black swan” phenomena: improbable events that are unpredictable, cause massive impacts, and about which, after the fact, we devise explanations that make the event seem less improbable and unpredictable than it was.

The Reality Dysfunction by Peter Hamilton - A plausible far-future society colonizing space, using nanotech - offering an unusual impetus to move into space.

The Mystery of Capital: Why Capitalism Triumphs in the West and Fails Everywhere Else by Hernando De Soto - Tackles some of the most difficult questions in development - why has the development of capital been such a mysteryWhy is poverty a cycleWhy hasn’t capitalism flourished in more countries more than a decade after the fall of Marxism?

Everyware: the Dawning of the Age of Ubiquitous Computing by Adam Greenfield - One of the most accessible recent books on technology trends, Everywhere introduces the technologies that are enabling ubiquitous computing and discusses the impact these will have on healthcare, privacy and daily life.

Natural Capitalism: Creating the Next Industrial Revolution by Paul Hawken, Amory Lovins, L. Hunter Lovins - A look at how the prevailing model for creating wealth, which has its roots in the industrial revolution, applies no longer. Instead, the authors introduce an alternative model that uses radical resource productivity and investment in Natural Capital.

Visual Language: Global Communication for the 21st Century by Robert E. Horn - A provocative look at the impact visual language is making in education, business, science, and technology.

Why? by Charles Tilly - Tilly introduces a framework for how we as social beings create of explanations, including the use of conventions, codes, technicals and story.

The Biology of Belief: Unleashing the Power of Consciousness, Matter and Miracles? by Bruce Lipton - A former medical school professor and research scientist who has turned his attention to changing the framework of biology, Lipton’s experiments examine the molecular mechanisms by which cells process information.

World Changing: A User’s Guide for the 21^st Century by Alex Steffen - A 600-page compendium of innovations and ideas for creating an environmentally and economically sustainable future.

Difficult Conversations by Douglas Stone, Bruce Patton and Sheila Heen - Offers practical advice for understanding and handling confrontations.

Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed by Jared Diamond - In incisive historical account of human economic and social collapse through the ages, exploring everything from the patterns of population growth to overfarming to social mores.

The Clock of the Long Now: Time and Responsibility by Stewart Brand - An iconic book on the value of foresight focusing on the key principles of longevity, maintainability, transparency, evolvability, and scalability.

Stumbling on Happiness by Daniel Gilbert - Drawing on cognitive neuroscience, philosophy and behavioral economics, this is an engaging read on the limitations of the human mind to lead us to happiness.

After the official book swap was over, we noticed a few under-the-table trades taking place. They were all so good I’m including them here as well:

Breakpoint by Richard Clarke - Set in 2012, the novel centers on a terrorist threat against the United States that seeks to “disconnect the globe” by destroying computer grids, communications satellites, Internet cable centers and biotech firms. A sweeping, on-the-money analysis of the future of technology and a great read all wrapped in one. (thanks Bruno G for the recommendation)

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The Speed of Dark, by Elizabeth Moon- Set in a near future, with the biggest change being increased understanding of cognitive neuroscience and genetic manipulation. The main character is a high-functioning autistic adult, and the novel is told from his perspective. He is faced with a major decision that has the potential to re-write his identity. It’s fascinating. (thanks Wendy!)

Steel Couture - Syd Mead - Futurist: Sentinel II by Syd Mead and Strother MacMinn - A stunning visual reference of futuristic concepts by the legendary industrial designer Syd Mead. For those unfamiliar with Mead, over the last 50 years he has designed and illustrated for corporations, motion pictures (including Blade Runner, Star Trek and Aliens) and a wide range of transportation projects. Unfortunately this masterpiece is out of print, which makes it all the more special that good friend Lloyd Walker gave me his copy. (mahalo nui, Lloyd!)

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These two images, separated by nearly half a century, represent the dreams of human exploration of space. Together they tell a story of lost opportunity and future promises.?

Forty five years ago today Astronaut John Glenn completed an epochal space mission which made him the first American to orbit the Earth. The Port Arthur News reported: “Glancing at the Earth at altitudes ranging from 100 to 160 miles, Glenn had a breathtaking panoramic view stretching 1,800 miles from horizon to horizon. He described the view as ‘tremendous’ and a ‘beautiful sight.’”

Just a few weeks ago the Cassini spacecraft snapped the above picture of Titan, the biggest of the 56 known moons orbiting Saturn and the second largest moon in our solar system. The Cassini spacecraft is the first to explore the Saturn system of rings and moons from orbit.

As planetary scientist Carolyn Porco writes in a fabulous New York Times Op-Ed piece published today, in the 1960’s the possibilities for human space travel were intoxicating: plans were laid for the establishment of a 50-person lunar base, a 100-person Earth orbiting space station and human landfall on Mars by the 1980s.

Instead, by abandoning the Apollo space program the country lost a capital investment of close to $160 billion and the collective knowledge of the tens of thousands of space engineers and scientists.

Yet she also paints an amazing vision: one of a revitalized NASA with plans to return to the Moon with a party of humans by 2020, a solar-powered human-tended research outpost by 2025 and preparations for a Mars trip soon after.

As she says: Humanity’s future need not be confined to mere survival on our home planet. Other worlds beckon, we know how to reach them and we will once more be outward bound.

Porco offersan ambitious and inspiring vision for the future - and one that maybe this time around, we can get right.

As I scroll through the 700 emails in my inbox, I mumble the prayer to St. Anthony, patron saint of missing things.

I’m giving a speech next month and the organizers need my picture to include in the conference program. I’m positive that the photo, a mid-life version of my high school yearbook picture - is in here, buried under an avalanche of emails. I’ve realized that Gmail has become my personal bunker - the endless vault where I greedily stockpile thousands of emails and files, rationalizing my electronic hoarding with the Just In Case theory. That is, “just in case I spill diet coke on my laptop again”… or “just in case my dog chews up my memory key”… or “just in case planetary sunspots cause freak electrical storms and my hard drive is fried like an egg”. Given any of these scenarios, thanks to Gmail’s unlimited storage space, I’ll be able to recover all of the emails, files and digital photos which make up the electronic anthology of my life. Such as picture I’m looking for.

Which I still can’t find. I’ve searched dozens of keywords - “picture” “michele” “speeches”. Nothing. Thirty-two agonizing minutes later I find it. Of course, it’s not labeled something simple, something obvious - Michele’s Picture, for example. Instead, in a fit of fuzzy logic, I apparently chose to name this particular file “MB Headshot.”

So goes the paradox of the ?information’ age. To effectively navigate the web, I have to name what I’m looking for, which is a little like saying “I could find the sweater I lost if I just remembered where I put it.” Despite Google’s ability to searchthree gazillion websites before I can finish typing the query; in spite of the plethora of social media tagging sites such as digg.comand del.icio.us, search is still somewhat of a crap shoot. This is because the underlying search function works on the assumption that my mental filing system makes sense, which often it does not.

When it comes to searching effectively, we’re still stuck in the Middle Ages, that is, the purgatory between Web 1.0 and 2.0. Search today is conceptual and one-dimensional, it relies on abstract concepts and clumsy language constructs; do a search for “toast” and you’ll likely get as many hits for clever wedding speeches as you do for breakfast food.

And the problem will only get worse. The most prominent language in the world today isn’t English or Spanish or even Mandarin - it’s binary code. The language of 1s and 0s is dematerializing our world. Physical objects are increasingly transmogrified from atoms to bits. Who needs Blockbuster when you can get the streaming bits - minus the plastic packaging, the late fees and the obsolete DVD player - from YouTube??

As we overpopulate the planet with bits and bytes, the ability to understand and explore our world will depend on new approaches to search and rescue (or search and destroy, as the case may be). Current strategies to improving search have centered on inventing increasingly complex algorithms, but a simpler answer might (literally) be right under our nose.

Researchers at the University of Glasgow have created a computer program which allows users to attach distinctive smells to digital photos. Called Olfoto, the program uses an array of cube-shaped capsules, similar to an ink jet printer cartridge, each of which contain a unique smell - the scent of an open wood fire, for example, or the aroma of freshly brewed coffee. The capsules release a different fragrance when activated electronically so that when a particular image appears on-screen a user can “tag” it with a scent. They can then sort through their image collections simply by sniffing.

The idea - pardon the pun - a potent one. Humans can smell approximately 10,000 odors. Scents are powerful memory tags. While I remember next to nothing from 3 years of Japanese classes, one whiff of Jagermeister triggers a gag reflex that instantly reminds me of the most important lesson I learned in college (which is of course, that one should never, ever drink Jagermeister).

In the future, we’ll need a multi-sensory approach to navigate the dematerialized world. In this way, Olfoto may ultimately become an important social and business tool, adding another dimension to our ability to communicate. Emails from your ex may smell like skunk. The quarterly finance reports might exude the aroma of champagne or sour milk, depending on the market results. And just so you know, if you want me to read your email, make it smell like freshly baked cookies.

“PERSONS PRETENDING TO FORECAST THE FUTURE SHALL BE CONSIDERED DISORDERLY UNDER SUBDIVISION 3, SECTION 901 OF THE CRIMINAL CODE AND LIABLE TO A FINE OF $250 AND/OR SIX MONTHS IN PRISON.”

New York State Code of Criminal Procedure

This New York state law, which dates back to the turn of the century, was originally applied to fortune tellers, astrologers and palm readers. Interestingly, the courts have defined a fortune teller as “one who attempts to foretell or predict the future” or as “one who claims to have some professed means of calling up the secrets of the future.” But while any reputable futurist will tell you that she doesn’t predict the future, science is helping us get one step closer to understanding how people “see” future events.

In particular, a recent study by researchers at Washington University used MRI imaging to identify specific areas of the brain that are active in helping people develop images of future events. The study, Neural Substrates of Envisioning the Future, looked at one of the qualities researchers believe is unique to humans - the ability to create a mental picture of events that have not yet happened.?

The BBC reports that “the researchers placed 21 volunteers into the MRI machine, then contrasted the scan results when they were asked to imagine vividly future events and recollect past memories. The resulting images showed clear differences between a birthday already experienced, and a birthday yet to come. When looking ahead, three particular areas of the brain were activated - the left lateral premotor cortex, the left precuneus and the right posterior cerebellum. These brain areas are already known to be involved in the imagining of body movements, suggesting that when the human brain is thinking about the future, it does so in terms of distinct movements and actions that will happen at that point.”

Reading the study, my brain was in overdrive considering the implications - will scientists be able to develop anphysical metric for quantifying a person’s future-thinking abilityWill we one day be able to electrochemically enhance that ability?

My good friend and colleague, renowned futurist Wendy Shultz, suggests that our knowledge about the future comes from:

our understanding and interpretation of past experience;

our observation of the trends and emerging issues occurring in the present, particularly those in the social and technological arenas;

our assumptions - our ideas and beliefs - about what will happen

I agree with Wendy and would argue that our ideas about what could - and should - happen is the most important factor in expanding (or diminishing) our knowledge of the future. In other words, our ability to “know” the future is directly proportional to our capability - as individuals, organizations and societies - to see and accept change, and to imagine different possibilities.

With advances in the rapidly emerging field of brain imaging - and an open mind - perhaps soon we’ll be able to “see” the future a lot more clearly.