Note: this is a follow-up to this post, where I invoked the power of the Lazy Web to consider the future of the world’s most famous tool.

Originally developed in 1897, the Swiss Army Knife (SAK) is an icon of design and a brand legend. It’s one of those rarified objects that have reached metaphorical status, crossing cultural divides to become a euphuism for utilitarian dependability. Although the SAK is best known for its array of handy tools, perhaps its most useful function is as a barometer of societal change, a steel-forged mirror reflecting how our technology, economics and politics have evolved over the last century.

 Over the last 100+ years the Swiss Army Knife has morphed with the times, adjusting to the shifting needs of both the modern solider and the weekend warrior. When it was first introduced the inaugural SAK featured the essential tools of the 19th century day:  a cutting blade, a screwdriver, a can opener and a punch.  The latest high tech version (circa 2007) features a laser pointer, a digital clock, an LED light and a USB flash drive. A commemorative version issued in 2006 is a portable encyclopedia of a century of human technological progress: appropriately called The Giant, it’s nearly 9 inches thick and has 85 features (see this LunchOverIP post for the complete list).  

More than a tool, the SAK is also a pocket-sized victim of globalization, a cross-cultural artifact of the global economy. Since its inception the SAK has been produced exclusively by Swiss companies. But in 2007, when the Swiss government was looking to commission more knives for the Swiss army, it was required by WTO rules to open the bid to companies around the world, not just the two native Swiss manufacturers. 

One thing that hasn’t changed is Swiss nationalism.  The iconic logo represents the enduring Swiss values of neutrality and practicality (leave it to the Swiss to develop a weapon that at its core is militarily benign - not many brigades have surrendered under the threat of a pocket knife siege- and yet universally practical).

As a harbinger of social and technological change, what can we expect from the Swiss Army Knife of the future?  What features will it incorporate in 25 or 50 years that will be indispensible to soldiers and citizens of the future? I posed this question recently to a handful of colleagues; here are their responses:

Paul Saffo:

“I’d assume access to ultra-compact high-density power supplies, so consider a Swiss Army Knife with a built-in plasma torch. Also a retractable reel of carbon nano-fiber cablewith tiny motor drive for emergency building descents a la McGyver. Oh, and a built-in sdr (software defined radio) to call the paramedics when one accidentally slices off their fingers with the nano-cable.”

Randal Moss, CEO, The World’s Most Dangerous Company:

“The SAK will follow the ultra personalization trend that everything is going towards. SAKs will first off be custom manufactured to meet specific needs and more importantly fit perfectly in your hand. Forget the features - it is all about YOUR KNIFE. Using biometrics your hand size will go into the SAK manufacturing database and they will select blade size and handle contour to fit you like a glove. SAKs will have a bio lock preventing anyone other than you from opening it and accessing the features. SAKs will be wimax linked devices and carry internal flash memory to hold and disburse select data. SAKs will carry eHealth records, as well as come with options to record and catalog certain biological metrics.

The knives will forgo steel and instead employ ceramic polymers for ease of use when traveling, as well as saving weight. Leather punches will be replaced with laser pointers, and heat sources (think flameless lighter). The magnifying glass will be replaced with an optical scanner that can access databases via wimax to identify millions of objects and present data about them to you via onboard speaker, or save the data for future access.

An on board microphone will link into a global system of language translation programs and provide near simultaneous translation, as well as reverse translation. Of course each SAK will also come with a GPS geo-locater to tell you, and whom ever else you want to know exactly where you are, and give directions on demand.

Marcus Barber:

 ”Water purification/’lab on a chip’ tester; Cholesterol and blood sugar check; Language decoder (for those of us westerners who think it’s everyone else’s job to learn to speak English).”

Bob Treadway, futurist:

 ”Truth detector; Adjustable laser instead of metal knife, pliers, file, etc.; Locator and emergency communicator for those lost in the wilderness; Zero point source or high efficiency solar power supply; Cloaking system to allow it to be carried past the TSA-equivalent of the future.”

I’m in DC this week, arguably the command center for the world’s most powerful military, the epicenter of geopolitical power (for now), a city where “war” is just another word for Monday morning. Like it or not, our cultural (some would say human) fascination with war is endless. While the average American would likely be hard pressed to name 10 elements in the periodic table, thanks to the US media and recent election cycle, most could easily tell you that we’re spending $10 billion per month to fund the war in Iraq and that General Petraeus likes oatmeal for breakfast. Now that we’ve elected a new Commander in Chief, what sort of wars will the leader-elect of the free world have to contend with? For better or worse, this week’s Friday Five covers different visions of the future of war.

Mind Wars

War has always been a boom time for science.  Since WWII when the military establishment and academia first got cozy, scientific advancements have flourished in the wake of war.  Government support of science has led to breakthroughs in war technologies (think: sonar and the atomic bomb) but also benevolent ones, such as penicillin and the Internet.  In Mind Wars: Brain Research and National Defense, Jonathan Moreno explores the military applications of neuroscience, providing a tour through some of the most provocative research that’s making the brain the most popular object of national security attention, including:  wearable robotics, smart drugs, “neural prostheses” and “rapid onset brain-targeted bioweapons.” Moreno covers both near and long-term technologies, painting a broad picture of how future wars may be fought, and importantly gives focused attention to the ethical dilemmas that these new technologies will create.

CyberWars

In May, seven NATO nations backed a new cyber defense center in Estonia, the ex-Soviet state which last year faced weeks of denial of service attacks on its internet infrastructure. The move marks new territory for NATO; as cyber-skirmishes increase, geo-political alliances must write new rules to deal with these emerging forms of conflict.  The playbook is wide open: should cyber-bullets be considered weapons of mass destruction? What constitutes collateral damage online? This New Scientist article takes a look the battleground of the future: cyberspace.  

Non-Lethal Weapons

Is the term “non-lethal weapon” an oxymoron on the battlefield?  Wired.com’s “Danger Room” blog reports on the development of a combination sonic  blaster/laser weapon that when deployed, would blast off a deafening and blinding combination of light and sound, or in military contractor lingo, a “psycho-acoustical event.” A new wave of such non-lethal weapons which ‘distract and disorient’ are on the horizon, touted by military experts as essential tools in peacekeeping missions and civilian-heavy battle zones.  Check out the Danger Room blog for more on ‘what’s next in national security’.  

War of the Nerds

In 2005 the secretary of the Air Force penned a vision statement for the future in which he vowed that the Air Force would “fly and fight in air, space and cyberspace.”  That statement was the force (no pun intended) behind the establishment of the service’s newly-formed Cyber Command, and its chief, Brig. General William Lord, is looking for a few good geeks to recruit. This Wired article (“Welcome to Cyber Country, USA”) offers a behind-the-scenes look at the new command whose mission is to prepare for a future where computers are weapons.  Says Lord: “We have to change the way we think about warriors of the future.  So if they can’t run three miles with a pack on their backs but they can shut down a SCADA system, we need to have a culture where they can fit in.”

Water Wars

India.  China. Pakistan.  Uruguay. Turkey. Iraq. Nevada. This is just a short list of the places that are hotspots for future (and in some cases, current) water conflicts, the threat of which has been heralded by academics and policymakers for years. Blue Gold: World Water Wars takes a different look at the source of these future conflicts. Based on the book, this documentary film looks at the privatization and commoditization of the world’s water sources by both corporations and countries.  Following the fight for water rights around the world, the film asks: is water a commodity or a human right? The answer today, of course, is both.  But by 2025, when more than two billion people are expected to live in water-stressed countries, perhaps the more relevant question is: what will it be in the future?  

Let me start by saying that I’m not a big fan of reblogging. I think there’s a fine line between greedily sucking at the spigot of Googlejuice by lazily link-posting (on the one hand) and hyperlinking into the central nervous system of the blogosphere to share a really cool story (on the other).

This is one of those “on the other hand” times. For the assuredly small minority of FringeHog readers who aren’t already rabid Ethan Zuckerman fans, I bring to your attention a cautionary yet inspirational story about the ravages of war, the boundless ingenuity of humans and the transformation of a commonplace rodent into a hero. See Ethan’s fabulous post Sniffing out the future in Morogoro, Tanzania. Seriously, it will make your day.

(And if you’re looking for a holiday gift, you can’t do much better than adopting a Hero Rat).

Weather maps and search engine queries are the latest tools in the fight against global health threats.

In 2003 a new, highly contagious form of pneumonia began to spread throughout China.  Over the course of nine months over 8,000 cases of “severe acute respiratory syndrome” or SARS were reported in more than 25 countries.  As the disease spread, so did the public panic. Although fewer than 1,000 SARS deaths were reported worldwide, the economic and psychological toll was great. Countries closed their borders and halted trade, and the global economic impact ran into the billions.

Experts warn that such pandemics are on the rise, and as the world becomes more ”hot, flat and crowded“ the global cost of communicable diseases like SARS will also increase. Which makes predicting where the next pandemic will come from all that more urgent.

A step in the right direction occured aarlier this year when researchers released a first-ever map of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) that identifies the world’s “hotspots” for diseases such as SARS, avian flu, Ebola and the West Nile virus. The map shows that most of the emerging pathogens are zoonoses (animal pathogens that infect humans) and that the main “hotspots” are located in developing countries where changes in population density and wildlife diversity have shifted (specifically South Asia and Southeast Asia).  Researchers say that together with “smart surveillance” and monitoring systems the map offers a prediction of where the next new disease could emerge.

 Hmmm… Surveillance.  Monitoring.  Aggregating large amounts of data.  Sounds like a job for the world’s favorite search engine.  Indeed, last week Google.org announced a new tool to predict flu outbreaks in the U.S.  The aptly-named Google Flu Trends analyzes search patterns (i.e., users searching for keywords such as “flu symptoms” or “chest congestion”) to create a map of possible flu outbreaks several weeks ahead of public health agencies such as Center for Disease Control (CDC).  While traditional flu surveillance systems (such as doctors reporting to the CDC) take weeks to collect and release data, Google search queries can be generated automatically, providing daily estimates and an early-warning system for potential outbreaks.  Google Flu Trends is part of an on-going series of “digital detection” public health projects, including Health Map, a global disease alert map (above image).

And finally, an actual use for the weather channel:  researchers are using satellites to predict cholera outbreaks in the developing world. This BBC article reports on research by global infectious diseases expert Dr. Rita Colwell, who discovered that cholera outbreaks follow seasonal increases in sea temperature. It turns out that cholera bacteria live in the sea and are associated with plankton blooms which bring the pathogen into the drinking water supply.  Dr. Colwell’s research found that plankton has a seasonality - spring and fall - and that the development of cholera in developing countries follows the same pattern.  By measuring sea surface temperatures using satellite imagery, researchers can predict when the plankton will bloom and thus provide an early warning system for India and Bangladesh, where cholera epidemics occur regularly.  Eventually, researchers hope to be able to predict cholera outbreaks weeks or even months before they occur by looking out to the sea.

A friend of mine just excitedly alerted me to the fact that the new version of the Swiss Army Knife now comes with a laser pointer and a USB drive. Being a professional futurist, however (not to mention an avid beer and wine drinker) I was already well aware of this fact. Duh.

Anyhow, it led me to think: what will the Swiss Army Knife of the future look like? If the Swiss Army Knife is the epitome of utilitarian technology, a harbinger of social change, what features will it incorporate in 25 or 50 years? What tool(s) could or should it include that will be indispensible in the future? A DNA decoder, perhaps? An identity scanner? Hmmm…

What do you think?

Which is more iconic New York: the Empire State Building or a band of dirty pigeons?  While visitors to the Big Apple may or may not experience the city through its architectural landmarks, it’s a pretty sure bet that any trek through Mnahattan will involve an encounter with a pigeon or two (or fifty).  Abecedarium: NYC capitalizes on the city’s eccentricities by creating a map that reflects on the history, geography, and culture of New York City through 26 words. Make that 26 unusual words. Words like Georgic (”a poem to agriculture”), Kermis (”a festival”) and Welkin (”the vault of heaven, the sky”).  Each word is mapped to a location in New York and connects to an original video, picture and/or audio track that both describes the word (helpful, in case you’re lost on what “umbel” means) and shows it relationship to the cityscape.

The result is a multimedia interpretation of the city as seen through the eyes of a dictionary. For instance, Holus Bolus (”all at once”) includes a video that seems to feature a day in the life of a flock of NYC pigeons while Audile (”one who thinks in sounds rather than visual images”) reveals a sound tour of the city, a sort of urban symphony of honking cars and street rappers.

While the content on the main site is curated by the project’s directors, users can contribute their own interpretations and experiences of the words on the site’s blog.  The contributions range from the quotidian to the quintessential: posts related to Georgic include a video of the greener side of the east village and an ode to the Park Slope food co-op.

Last year we highlighted five extraordinary women in the Pop!Tech community.  Well, the idea was such a good one we decided to do it again.  This week’s Friday Five looks at some of the amazing women that made Pop!Tech 2008 special.

Photo by Kris Krug

HEATHER FLEMING, Catapult Design

Some speakers use animated graphics to make their point; others rely on high-tech demos (or in the case of Kelly Dobson, repurposed home appliances).  True to her spirit of ingenuity, however, Heather Fleming introduced the Pop!Tech audience to the Hippo Project with the help of a naked Barbie.  Fleming, a 2008 Pop!Tech Social Innovation Fellow, told the audience that she followed what she thought was a straight-forward career path: she got a degree in engineering, dutifully worked for a design firm creating “stuff”, all the while patiently waiting for Martin Fisher to call and offer her job so she could do work that really mattered to her.  She never received that call, so instead she founded Catapult Design, where she’s using her engineering expertise to solve problems for the developing world such as low-cost wind turbines and innovative cookstoves.

Photo: Sheila Kennedy

SHEILA KENNEDY, Portable Light Project

Sheila Kennedy is an architect and associate professor at the Harvard Graduate School of Design. She was a speaker Pop!Tech ‘07, where she first introduced the Portable Light Project: a non-profit initiative that’s creating new ways to deliver renewable power and light to the developing world by embedding flexible photovoltaic materials, digital electronics and solid state lighting in textiles, enabling people in the developing world to create and own energy harvesting textile blankets, bags and clothing.  I had a chance to catch up with Sheila, see the latest prototype (shown above) and hear the good news: that the Portable Light project was selected as one of 25 laureates in this year’s Tech Awards sponsored by the Tech Museum of Innovation.  (Side note: another one of my favorite projects, the Solar Electric Light Fund, led by two-time Pop!Tech speaker Bob Freling, is also a nominee).

Photo by Kris Krug

MARIAN BANTJES, Artist

I’m not sure how to describe Marian Bantjes.  She’s a graphic designer, an artist, a typographer, a writer … maybe a better word would be a modern day “graphicographer”.  The definition is fitting for one whose work defies convention, for an artistdesignergraphictypographer who brings letters to life, creating as one person described “thoughtful art and artful thought.”  She left the field of graphic design because she “didn’t want to spend her life making landfill.” That’s bad news for landfills, which will most surely never see the beautiful, inspiring and provocative works she does today.

Photo by Kris Krug

SUZANNE SEGGERMAN, Games for Change

Suzanne Seggerman thinks that digital games and teenagers have a lot in common:  both are just growing up and they are often misunderstood.  While 97% percent of all teenagers play video games, contrary to popular belief the two most popular are puzzle and racing games - not violent games as most would assume.  Seggerman is president and co-founder of Games for Change (G4C), an umbrella organization which supports individuals and organizations using digital games for social change. The website is a virtual encyclopedia of games that tackle social issues such as human rights, poverty, environment, global conflict and politics. Games like Peacemaker which challenges players create a workable solution for peace in the Middle East by becoming one of the leaders in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, or Food Force, a game that helps players understand the challenges of dispensing emergency aid in war zones. Seggerman is steadfast in her belief that video games can change the world for the better by creating environments that teach young people to see complex social issues from multiple perspectives. 

Photo by Kris Krug

PRITI RADHAKRISHNAN, I-MAK

Priti Radhakrishnan is looking for a fight.  And not just any fight: the Pop!Tech Social Innovation Fellow is a patent lawyer who’s taking on some of the world’s biggest pharmaceutical companies and demanding that they make their drugs affordable to developing nations.  Radhakrishnan is the co-director of I-MAK, a non-profit team of lawyers and scientists working to strengthen patent systems and encourage innovation in new medicines by challenging unsound patent systems globally. I-MAK (which stands for Initiative for Medicines, Access and Knowledge) reviews pharmaceutical patents to strengthen patent examination, and selectively exposes unmerited pharmaceutical patents - which drive up the cost of essential drugs and prevent them from ever being accessible in less developed countries for poor patients. Radhaskrishnan’s team is working to create technical analyses of 100 critical medicines and patents, which will help preempt the granting of unmerited patents, increase accountability and ultimately make lifesaving drugs more affordable.

 (Running notes from Pop!Tech ‘08.  For more posts and the latest release of talks, see the Pop!Tech blog.) 

 photo: Kris Krug

At first glance, David Harrison looks more like a Marine than a linguist. With his carefully cropped crew cut, impeccably tailored shirt and serious, straightforward attitude, he looks like he should be saving combat missions, not cultures.  But perhaps his physical persona is in fact fitting with his life’s mission: to protect and save the endangered languages of the world.  It’s a task that has taken him to some of the most remote corners of the planet, making him an unlikely hero: a protector of languages, a guardian of the spoken word.

Harrison is an author, professor of linguistics at Swathmore College and director of research for the Living Tongues Institute for Endangered Languages. He says there are some 7000 languages spoken in the world today, which may seem like a lot until we consider that globally linguistic diversity is incredibly uneven. In fact, 83 of the most widely spoken languages account for about 80 percent of the world’s population while the 3,500 smallest languages account for just 0.2 percent of the world’s people.

In an increasingly culturally homogenous world, why should we care?  Because languages, Harrison says, are more than just a collection of sounds and words; they are “entire conceptual universes of thought.” Collectively, he says, languages represent the greatest repository of human knowledge ever assembled. Every language reveals some of the secrets of how humans have survived on the planet.

Every 14 days a language disappears.  Languages are much more endangered than species, and are going extinct at a much faster rate.  While 5% of the world’s fish are extinct, 8% of plants; 11% of birds, 18% of mammals - with languages the figure closer to 40%. By 2100 more than half of the world’s languages will become extinct.

from When Languages Die

What’s lost when a language goes extinct?  Harrison says when a language dies the history of a culture vanishes: we lose vital information about the natural world, plants, animals, ecosystems, and cultural traditions. For instance, the Yulik of Alaska have over 99 complex descriptive terms for describing different formations of sea ice, a technology that has aided them in hunting and in surviving in one of the world’s harshest climates, and attuning their culture to be one of the most sensitive instruments to detect the signs of climate change and global warming. We’re facing the “triple threat of extinction“: species and ecosystems are in collapse globally; but knowledge systems about those ecosystems are also in collapse because they’re often contained in small languages that are purely transmitted orally.  

Harrison’s Enduring Voices project focuses on identifying “language hotspots” to prioritize research and save endangered languages (see this previous post).  There are 24 hotspots today, including eastern Siberia, northern Australia, central South America, Oklahoma, and the U.S. Pacific Northwest.   The goal of Enduring Voices is to support indigenous community efforts at language revitalization and maintenance worldwide. Together with colleagues Greg Anderson and National Geographic photographer Chris Rainer, Harrison visits “last speakers” to document their dying languages, sometimes creating the first-ever written records.

The process can be deeply personal. He recalls a quote from one of the last speakers of the Tofa language in Siberia, an aged woman, who reflecting on her mortality, told him: “Soon I will go berry picking. And when I do, I will take my language with me.”

Note: David Harrison’s talk at Pop!Tech has been translated into 33 languages on dotSub.