Laurent Haug (co-founder of the LIFT conferences) wrote a fabulous post recently called “Eight Things I Think I Think”  - an intriguing list of things he knows, but isn’t sure why. A few years ago Edge co-founder John Brockman published a great book on a similar topic, a compilation of answers to the question: “What do you believe is true even though you can’t prove it?”

It’s a perfect exercise for a futurist who is asked on a regular basis “what do you think will happen in the future?” (the problem with that question being that I always feel compelled to provide an answer that is what I call provokacredible - that is, thought-provoking enough to earn my stripes as a futurist, but credible enough to keep me gainfully employed).

But sometimes, like tonight, as I approach the almost-end of the week I realize that my brain cells are numb from too much email and I’m listing too far towards the present and not enough into the future. And so I found Laurent’s post - and a fabulous Oregon Coast Pinot Noir - a welcome antidote, reminding me that sometimes, as Malcolm Gladwell would say, it’s better to blink, not think.  And so in the spirit of great blog posts that make you think (kudos, Laurent) here’s my own list of things I think I think:

Privacy is an antiquated notion. Our current arguments about both online and offline privacy will be seen by future generations at best as quaint and naive, at worst, as narrow-minded and ignorant.

Cybership will become more important than citizenship.

In the next five years bottled water-drinkers will be as socially marginalized as cigarette smokers (ok, this is one I actually hope for).

Both Malcolm Gladwell and Duncan Watts are wrong: ideas propagate because of platforms, not people. The social media sphere has become the primary means for disseminating information and ideas throughout society.

In the next decade we will develop a pharmacological cure for sleep.  And maybe - just maybe - that’s a good thing.

Breakthroughs in genomics and neuroscience will spark a widespread debate about “what it means to be human” that will become the primary focus of public discourse over the next two decades, fracturing religions and spurring geo-political conflicts.

DNA and social capital will become primary currencies in the future, complete with their own markets, traders and fluctuating value indexes.

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p.s. -   Laurent: deepest apologies for stealing your idea, but many thanks for the inspiration and mental nudge.  I owe you a beer at LIFT.  Or an Oregon Pinot.

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